Led by slower growth in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in November from +1.01 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories decreased from October. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.56 in November from +0.85 in October.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to +0.53 in November from +0.62 in October. Forty-nine of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 36 made negative contributions. Twenty indicators improved from October to November, 64 indicators deteriorated, and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, five made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed +0.14 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.36 in October. Manufacturing industrial production increased 0.8% in November after rising 1.1% in October. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.07 in November from +0.17 in October.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.15 to the CFNAI in November, down from +0.45 in October. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 in November after rising by 610,000 in October. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.09 in November from +0.02 in October.
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